Flash drought possible in central North Carolina as heat builds and soil moisture decreases
(WGHP) – The National Weather Service is keeping a close eye on the potential for flash drought to occur in central North Carolina. After a very wet May, rainfall has dropped off dramatically… The National Weather Service is monitoring the potential for flash drought in central North Carolina, due to increasing temperatures and decreased soil moisture. This comes after a very wet May, with significant rainfall dropping off and temperatures starting to rise. Data through June 25 shows a potential two-inch deficit in some areas, meaning no rain or very little rainfall in the next few weeks. A strong high-pressure system is forecast over the eastern United States from June 19 to June 25, which likely means a heat wave while the Triad experiences a continued rainfall deficit. Flash drought is caused by below-normal rainfall, abnormally high temperatures, winds and radiation, and typically occurs during the warm seasons. The combination of warmer temperatures and lack of rainfall will lead to an increase in evaporation rates. If not careful attention to soil moisture, the heat can damage agriculture and the economy.
Publicado : Hace 10 meses por Alex Schneider en Weather
(WGHP) – The National Weather Service is keeping a close eye on the potential for flash drought to occur in central North Carolina.
After a very wet May, rainfall has dropped off dramatically and temperatures are starting to heat up. Over the past two weeks, much of the Tar Heel state has seen a negative departure from normal, meaning below-normal rainfall.
Data through June 25 is showing the departure from normal increasing even more with the possibility of a nearly two-inch deficit in some areas of the state.
Two inches of rainfall in two weeks is near normal for the Triad. So a two-inch deficit through June 25 would mean no rain or very little rainfall in the next couple of weeks.
A strong high-pressure system is forecast over the eastern United States from June 19 to June 25. This likely means a heat wave will be ongoing while the Triad experiences a continued rainfall deficit.
The above-normal temperatures and lack of rainfall forecasted in the next two weeks have forecasters concerned about the potential for a rapid onset of drought.
According to NIDIS, flash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought caused by below-normal rainfall, abnormally high temperatures, winds and radiation.
When temperatures are really warm, it leads to increased soil evaporation as well as transpiration from plants. This makes the amount of moisture in the soil decrease even faster, leading to drought conditions.
If we don’t pay close enough attention to the changes in soil moisture, the heat can cause extensive damage to agriculture as well as the economy and the ecosystem.
Why do forecasters think rapid drought is possible in central North Carolina?
Typically, flash drought is preceded by abnormally high temperatures or even changes in climate patterns, like La Niña. Also, unlike “typical” drought which can happen at any time of the year and in any location, flash drought typically occurs during the warm seasons. All three of these scenarios are currently occurring in the Triad.
Temperatures this week and into next week look to remain at least five degrees above normal with a few 90-degree days in the forecast.
Over the next eight to 14 days, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a continued stretch of above-normal temperatures for central North Carolina and the majority of the United States through June 25.
The Climate Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic for June 18 through June 20 followed by a slight risk for excessive heat from June 19 to 25.
Temperatures in central N.C. are forecast to be above normal by up to five degrees and some of the latest models are forecasting dry conditions for much of central N.C. through June 25.
The changes in evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture are key early warning indicators when it comes to flash drought.
The combination of warmer temperatures with the lack of rainfall will lead to an increase in evaporation rates. This is what we mean by changes in evapotranspiration. The increased evaporation rates also increase the potential for the onset of flash drought.